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OpenAI 奥尔特曼承认自己高估 AI 普及速度：最大阻力其实是改变用户习惯_我的网站

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A | "What the revelations appear to show is that there was a close relationship between Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, and that there was likely high mutual awareness of one another’s business interests and, possibly, mutual support for some of these," said Joseph Oliver Boyd-Barrett, a professor emeritus at Bowling Green State University. "I don’t think the scandal has the power in itself of firing widespread outrage against Biden: there are just too many other things to be outraged about just now.",A review of Hunter Biden's personal calendar on the so-called "laptop from hell", which was abandoned by Hunter at a repair shop in Wilmington, Delaware, in April 2019, shows that the younger Biden and his business associate Eric Schwerin frequently met with then-US VP Joe Biden between 2008 and 2016. Hunter held at least 30 business meetings with his father either in the White House or the latter's vice-presidential residence, the Naval Observatory. Schwerin was reportedly invited to 21 out of the 30 confabs.,The New York Post found that all of the meets occurred days or even hours after Hunter's negotiations with high-profile foreign clients, prompting the media outlet to suggest that the younger Biden apparently discussed his business dealing with his father. The Post even goes so far as to not rule out that Hunter passed messages and requests from his clients to the then-vice president.,'Laptop From Hell': Hunter Biden's Calendar Suggests President Joe Was Well Aware of Business Trips17 July, 16:44 GMT,The latest revelation apparently has earmarks of an influence-peddling scheme, according to Charles Ortel, a Wall Street analyst and investigative journalist. What's more, Hunter's dealings with foreign tycoons and politicians have already been in the crosshairs of the US Department of Justice (DoJ) for quite a while.,"In theory, at least one US attorney has been investigating Hunter Biden and likely others for years, possibly in conjunction with a grand jury," said Ortel. "If this investigation is serious and objective, it must examine how Joe Biden and his family amassed so much wealth during decades of 'public service'.",However, "the practice of trading influence for off-market financial benefits is not confined to the Bidens or to Democrats alone," the analyst pointed out, asking rhetorically: "How did the Obamas, Bushes and Clintons become so wealthy?",At the same time, an in-depth investigation into the Bidens' shady conduct could also shed light on the unfolding Ukraine crisis, given Joe's role as Barack Obama's Ukraine appointee shortly after the 2014 coup d’état in Kiev, and Hunter's service at the Ukrainian energy firm Burisma at the time, according to Boyd-Barrett.,"It would be important, in a more rational polity – which of course this isn’t – to look very critically indeed at Joe Biden and Hunter Biden’s peculiar history with the 2014 coup and, subsequently, with Ukrainian energy interests, even marveling at the possibility that a private history with Ukrainian elites may have contributed to a fatally rash misreading of the events of February 24 and the lead-up to it," the professor said.,Talented Mr Biden: Hunter's Art Sales Reek of Pay-to-Play But DoJ Lost Sense of Smell, Analysts Say29 October 2021, 13:00 GMT,Laptop From Hell Exposure Comes Ahead of Midterms,The timing of the latest revelation comes as partisan strife for the control over the US Congress intensifies. The specter of the GOP jumping at the opportunity to use Joe's apparent involvement in his son's business activities to crush the Dems during the midterms and impeach the US president with a congressional majority has been raised.,While Republicans "may well, in effect, take control by next year," it is unclear whether they will double down on investigating the Bidens, especially given the mainstream press' reluctance to cover the issue, according to Boyd-Barrett.,The professor suggested that the GOP "could weigh the advantages earned them by the Durham investigation" instead. Special Counsel John Durham's indictments of former Clinton campaign lawyer Michael Sussmann and ex-MI6 agent Chris Steele's source Igor Danchenko are very important for the Republicans as they help debunk the Russiagate hoax and mainstream media lies about Donald Trump's "collusion" with Russia, according to the academic.,Durham's Probe: Hillary Clinton Sowed Dragon's Teeth by Peddling Trump-Russia Hoax, Analyst Says5 October 2021, 16:30 GMT,Could Joe Biden be Impeached?,House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik previously signaled that she would subpoena Hunter Biden if Republicans win back control of Congress in the 2022 midterm elections. She noted that the Post's latest exposure appears to be yet more evidence of corruption.,While potential House investigations into the Bidens may indeed take place and even turn into impeachment hearings if the lower chamber is controlled by the GOP, the fate of this effort seems unclear, according to Ortel.,"Conservative, non-RINO [Republicans in Name Only] candidates now appear poised to win a wave election in 2022," he projected. "Things may change, but no current projections show Republicans reaching 67 out of 100 seats in the US Senate which is the number of votes required to convict an impeached person.",What's more possible, according to the analyst, is that the Democrats, already damaged by Joe Biden's incompetent domestic and foreign policies, will turn on him and force him out.,"Influence-shapers are far to the left of Joe Biden and mounting evidence shows they are done protecting Biden and rightly so," Ortel said.,If Joe Biden steps down, it's unlikely that the Dems will agree to see Kamala Harris replacing him, the analyst continued.,"Behind the scenes, major Democrat donors are trying to decide whether they can convince Michelle Obama to jump in and also to convince the Clintons to remain home with all their political and personal baggage packed up for good," he said, projecting that a new centrist Democrat presidential candidate could potentially emerge in order to fill Joe's shoes.。

B | 8 月 25 日消息，过去几年，全球科技巨头通过新品发布会、媒体采访和大量广告不断向公众灌输一个观点：AI 很快就会改变生活中的几乎一切。

C | OpenAI CEO 奥尔特曼却反其道而行之，主动去修正这种过于激进的预期。

D | 奥尔特曼在 23 日公布的播客节目中承认，自己和其他 AI 支持者可能高估了 AI 普及的速度，要达到谷歌搜索或 iPhone 那样深入大众日常生活的程度，恐怕还需要更长时间。

E | 奥尔特曼认为，最大的阻力之一其实来自人的习惯。绝大多数人已经非常习惯现有的技术和工作方式，很难迅速改用 Codex 这样的 AI 原生平台。

F | 即使新工具功能十分强大，企业投入再多营销费用，也很难让用户立即改变多年形成的使用习惯。

G | 奥尔特曼坦言：“我觉得自己在几件事上判断错了。其中一点就是，经济本身的惯性实在太大。人们还是会继续做原来的事情…… 继续从同一家公司买东西，继续用原来的方式使用工具。从很多方面来说，我觉得这其实是好事，它会让我们面前这场巨大转型变得更平稳、更缓慢，我对此很感激。但这也意味着，我们所有人对时间表的判断都太激进了……”获悉，奥尔特曼进一步指出，改变人的行为比科技圈的人想象中困难得多。他把 AI 的普及比作 Netflix 成立初期：当 Netflix 还只是邮寄 DVD 的公司时，人们依然照常去百视达租影片，并没有因为新模式出现就立刻改变习惯。